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For your perusal, my latest INTO THE FRAY column:

Instability in Jordan:  The impact on Trump’s “Ultimate Deal
(Kindly consider “liking”, sharing, tweeting – please use hash-tag ‪#‎IntoFray)

King Abdallah address the nation during the 2018 unrest

King Abdallah addresses the nation during the 2018 unrest

The forces of instability in Jordan are beyond Israel’s control. It cannot determine their eventual outcome—or who will seize, or sustain, command of the country. Accordingly, whatever advantages there might be in the continued rule of Abdallah, Israel must prepare for “the day after”…

It appears this week on the following sites (in alphabetical order):

ISRAELI FRONTLINE:  http://www.israelifrontline.com/2018/07/into-the-fray-instability-in-jordan-the-impact-on-trumps-ultimate-deal.html
ISRAEL NATIONAL NEWS:  https://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/22397
ISRAEL RISING:   ttps://www.israelrising.com/instability-jordan-trump/
ISRAPUNDIT:  https://www.israpundit.org/into-the-fray-instability-in-jordan-the-impact-on-trumps-ultimate-deal/
JERUSALEM HERALD :  https://www.jerusalem-herald.com/single-post/2018/07/04/INTO-THE-FRAY-Instability-In-Jordan-The-Impact-On-Trumps-Ultimate-Deal   
JEWISH PRESS:  http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/columns/into-the-fray-martin-sherman/into-the-fray-instability-in-jordan-the-impact-on-trumps-ultimate-deal/2018/07/04/
JNS:  https://jewsdownunder.com/2018/07/03/into-the-fray-instability-in-jordan-the-impact-on-trumps-ultimate-deal/
JEWS DOWN UNDER:  https://jewsdownunder.com/2018/07/03/into-the-fray-instability-in-jordan-the-impact-on-trumps-ultimate-deal/


Several short excerpts :
 

Jordan sees largest anti-government protests in years” “Al  Jazeera ”, June 4,2018.

Jordanians take to the streets to protest austerity measuresCNN, June 4, 2018

Jordan: thousands protest against IMF-backed austerity measures”,  -“The Guardian  , June 3, 2018

 

These are  merely a small sample of the international media coverage of the  wide spread unrest and protests against new IMF mandated austerity measures, that rocked the kingdom of Jordan  last month. They raised troubling questions as to the long term durability of the country’s incumbent monarchical regime and of the ruling Hashemite dynasty.

Jury still out?

In response to public anger at the austerity measures, King Abdallah, the third member of the Hashemite line to rule Jordan since its inception in 1946, replaced his prime minster and ordered a review of the IMF prescribed reforms.

 

The jury is still out on whether these steps will placate public anger—and if so for how long. For, with persistently high unemployment (now hovering just under 20%), a national debt reaching 95% , rising inflation (the highest in years), sluggish growth and increasing poverty, Jordan faces daunting domestic socio-economic challenges.

 

However, beyond its own internal woes, the kingdom has been plagued by severe external problems  induced by  the tribulations of others in the turbulent region in which it is located. Thus, the war in Syria–and earlier in Iraq– led to a deluge of refugees into the hapless country—straining its social services to their very limits.
None of this augurs well for future stability—and even if reports that most of the public ire has been directed at the government rather than the king are true—there seems scant room for optimism as to what is to come…

 

Planning for “the day after”….

 

For Israel, then, strategic prudence dictates that its working assumption must be that the Hashemite regime has a limited “shelf life”.

 

The forces of instability in Jordan are beyond Israel’s control, and although it might be able to attenuate them in the margins, it cannot determine their eventual outcome—or who will seize, or sustain, command of the country.

 

So, whatever advantages might be entailed in the continued rule of Abdallah,

Israel must prepare for “the day after” and tailor its ability to accede any territorial concessions in the Trump peace plan accordingly.

As usual your talkbacks/comments/critiques welcome,

Best wishes,

MS

 

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